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Celta vs Ath Bilbao

Sun 30 Aug 2026, 09:30 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Celta win: 35.2%

Draw: 33.3%

Ath Bilbao win: 31.6%

Predicted: Celta

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 86.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.78

More corners: Ath Bilbao (41.4% home / 58.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Celta

Yes

Probability Celta wins or draws: 66.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (35.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (86.0% model probability) High

Corners Ath Bilbao (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Celta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.